نامه انجمن جمعیت شناسی ایران

نامه انجمن جمعیت شناسی ایران

عوامل زمینه‌ساز گذار سوم جمعیتی

نوع مقاله : مقاله مروری

نویسندگان
1 استاد گروه جمعیت‌شناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
2 دانشجوی دکتری جمعیت‌شناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه تهران ، تهران، ایران
10.22034/jpai.2025.2065670.1416
چکیده
بحث انتقال جمعیتی و نقش آن در تحولات اجتماعی، اقتصادی، سیاسی و جمعیتی سابقه‌ای طولانی دارد، منظور از انتقال جمعیتی تغییر جمعیت به‌نحوی است که از نظر تاریخی سریع، بدون سابقه، برگشت ناپذیر، و مهمتر از همه از نظر اجتماعی، فرهنگی و سیاسی اساسی باشد. گذار سوم جمعیتی که برخی به آن گذار مهاجرتی نیز می‌گویند به دلیل افزایش مهاجرتهای بین‌المللی در حضور تداوم کاهش باروری در یک منطقه با تحولات بیشتری همراه است به نوعی که تغییر ترکیب نژاد و قومیت یک منطقه را مورد هدف خود قرار می‌دهد. تداوم باروری پایین و افزایش مهاجرت پیش‌نیاز گذار جمعیتی سوم هستند این موضوع با استفاده از مطالعات اسنادی در دو حوزه مهاجرت و باروری مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است و شواهدی مبنی بر احتمال وقوع آن در آینده نه چندان نزدیک البته نه به‌صورت جهانی بلکه به‌صورت منطقه‌ای یافت شده است.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Determinants of the Third Demographic Transition

نویسندگان English

Mohammad Mirzaie 1
Shirin Hatamifar 2
1 Professor, Department of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 PhD Candidate in Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

The concept of demographic transition and its role in social, economic, political, and population changes has a well-established history. The term demographic transition describes a process of population change that is rapid, unprecedented, irreversible, and fundamentally impacts social, cultural, and political dimensions. The third demographic transition, sometimes referred to as the "migration transition," is characterized by increased international migration along with continued declines in fertility rates in a region. This shift often results in changes to the ethnic and racial makeup of the area. A low fertility rate combined with increased migration are prerequisites for the third demographic transition. This subject is studied through documentary research in the fields of migration and fertility, with evidence indicating its likely occurrence in the near future, although on a regional rather than a global level.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Demographic transition
Migration
Fertility decline
Third demographic transition
Population Age structure
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انتشار آنلاین از 26 مهر 1404

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