نامه انجمن جمعیت شناسی ایران

نامه انجمن جمعیت شناسی ایران

اثر سالمندی جمعیت بر جریان سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه بجنورد، بجنورد، ایران
2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه بجنورد، بجنورد، ایران
3 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی‌ارشد اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه بجنورد، بجنورد، ایران
10.22034/jpai.2025.2059490.1409
چکیده
یکی از مهم‌ترین چالش‌های جمعیتشناختی قرن بیست و یکم، سالمندی جمعیت است. این پدیده نه تنها بر ساختار جمعیتی کشورها، بلکه بر ابعاد مختلف اقتصادی، اجتماعی، سیاسی و فرهنگی نیز تأثیرگذار است و میتواند فرصت‌هایی برای جذب سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی ایجاد ‌کند. برای بهره‌برداری از این فرصت‌ها، کشورها باید سیاست‌های مناسبی را اتخاذ کنند و محیط جذابی برای سرمایه‌گذاران خارجی در اقتصاد ایجاد نمایند. هدف این مقاله، بررسی اثر سالمندی جمعیت بر جریان سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی در ایران طی سال‌های 1339 تا 1402 است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که در بلندمدت، رابطه بین سالمندی جمعیت و جریان سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی در ایران، مثبت و معنادار است. در عین حال، باز بودن تجارت، عرضه گسترده پول و نرخ ارز مؤثر واقعی نیز در بلندمدت اثر مثبت و معناداری بر جریان سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی در ایران دارند. همچنین، نتایج حکایت از اثر منفی و معنادار سرمایه‌گذاری داخلی بر سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی دارد. یافته‌های این پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که سالمندی جمعیت می‌تواند با کاهش تقاضای نیروی‌کار و حرکت شرکت‌ها به سمت استفاده از فناوری‌های نوین به‌واسطه افزایش سرمایه‌گذاری در تحقیق و توسعه، تأثیر مثبتی بر جذب سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی در ایران داشته باشد که این امر مستلزم توجه سیاست‌گذاران به الزامات اقتصادی و اجتماعی این پدیده است.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

The Impact of Population Aging on Foreign Direct Investment Flows in Iran

نویسندگان English

Majid Dashtban Farooji 1
Sahar Dashtban Farooji 2
Ali Azarioon 3
1 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Bojnord, Bojnord, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Bojnord, Bojnord, Iran
3 MA in Economics, University of Bojnord, Bojnord, Iran
چکیده English

One of the most important demographic challenges of the 21st century is population aging. This phenomenon not only influences the population structure of countries but also impacts various economic, social, political, and cultural aspects. Moreover, it can present opportunities to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). To take advantage of these opportunities, countries must adopt appropriate policies and create an attractive environment for foreign investors. The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of population aging on FDI flows in Iran from 1960 to 2023. The findings indicate a positive and significant long-term relationship between population aging and FDI inflows in Iran. Furthermore, trade openness, broad money supply, and the real effective exchange rate also have a positive and significant long-term impact on FDI inflows in Iran. However, domestic investment exhibits a negative and significant effect on FDI. The findings of this study indicate that population aging can positively influence FDI attraction in Iran. This occurs as reduced demand for labor encourages companies to adopt new technologies through increased investment in research and development. This phenomenon necessitates careful attention from policymakers to its economic and social implications.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Population aging, Foreign direct investment, Trade openness, Domestic investment, Vector autoregressive model
اشکورجیری، تهمینه؛ علی‌پور، محمدصادق؛ و غلامی، الهام. (۱۳۹۵). سالخوردگی جمعیت و تاثیر آن بر روی رشد اقتصادی با استفاده از حساب‌های استانی. نامه انجمن جمعیت‌شناسی ایران، ۱۱(۲۲)، ۱۳۸–۱۵۵. https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_30189.html
حسن‌زاده، محمد؛ فرهنگ، امیرعلی؛ و محمدپور، علی. (۱۴۰۰). اثر سالخوردگی جمعیت بر رشد اقتصادی (مطالعه کشورهای عضو مناپ). نامه انجمن جمعیت‌شناسی ایران، ۱۶(۳۱)، ۲۱۷–۲۴۷. https://doi.org/10.22034/jpai.2022.526835.1178
راغفر، حسین؛ موسوی، میرحسین؛ و اردلان، زهرا. (۱۳۹۳). تاثیر پدیده سالمندی و تغییرات بهره‌وری بر بازنشستگی و متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی در ایران با استفاده از رویکرد تعادل عمومی پویا- مدل نسل‌های همپوش OLG. نامه انجمن جمعیت‌شناسی ایران، ۹(۱۷)، ۷–۳۵. https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_20067.html
قویدل، صالح؛ و میرغیاثی مردای، نسیم. (۱۳۹۶). سالمندی جمعیت، امید به زندگی و رشد اقتصادی. پژوهش‌های اقتصادی ایران، ۲۲(۷۳)، ۱۵۹–۱۹۶. https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2018.8302
کاشانیان، زهرا؛ راغفر، حسین؛ و موسوی، میرحسین. (۱۳۹۸). پیامدهای اقتصادی سالمندی جمعیت بر اقتصاد ایران (مدل تعادل عمومی نسل‌های هم‌پوش). پژوهش‌های اقتصادی ایران، ۲۴(۷۸)، ۳۱–۶۰. https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2019.10162
محبی میمندی، مهیار؛ کوششی، مجید؛ و سوری، علی. (۱۴۰۱). رشد جمعیت، تغییر ساختار سنی و پیامدهای اقتصادی آن در ایران: تجزیه و تحلیل سهم گروه‌های سنی. نامه انجمن جمعیت‌شناسی ایران، ۱۷(۳۴)، ۳۰۹–۳۴۶. https://doi.org/10.22034/jpai.2023.563001.1253
میری، ندا؛ مداح، مجید؛ و راغفر، حسین. (۱۳۹۷). سالمندی و رشد اقتصادی. سالمند: مجله سالمندی ایران، ۱۳(۵)، ۶۲۶–۶۳۷. http://dx.doi.org/10.32598/SIJA.13.Special-Issue.626
Acemoglu, D. (2010). When does labor scarcity encourage innovation? Journal of Political Economy, 118(6), 1037–1078. https://doi.org/10.1086/658160
Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2017). Secular stagnation? The effect of aging on economic growth in the age of automation (Working Paper No. 23077). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2899142
Börsch-Supan, A., Ludwig, A., & Winter, J. (2001). Ageing and international capital flows (Working Paper No. 02-27). MEA, University of Mannheim. https://ssrn.com/abstract=287750
Chakrabarti, A. (2001). The determinants of foreign direct investments: Sensitivity analyses of cross-country regressions. Kyklos, 54(1), 89–114. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-6435.00142
Chen, B. L., Hsu, M., & Lai, C. F. (2017). Relation between growth and unemployment in a model with labour force participation and adverse labour institutions. Journal of Macroeconomics, 50, 273–292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2016.10.004
Chi, N. T. D. (2023). Impact of money supply and macroeconomic indicators on foreign portfolio investment: Evidence from Vietnam. Banks and Bank Systems, 18(4), 94–104. https://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.18(4).2023.09
Chukwu, P. D. E., Ozor, K. C., & Enang, E. R. (2024). Empirical evaluation of macro-economic determinants on foreign direct investment in Nigeria. Journal of Risk and Financial Studies, 5(1), 27–41. https://doi.org/10.47509/JRFS.2024.v05i01.02
Çoban, M. N. (2022). Nüfusun yaşlanmasının doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri üzerine etkisi: ASEAN-5 ülkeleri üzerine panel veri analizi. Balıkesir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 3(1), 1–12. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/bauniibfd/issue/70923/1027407
Costa, D. L. (1998). The evolution of retirement: An American economic history, 1880-1990. University of Chicago Press for NBER. https://doi.org/10.2307/1060845
Davies, R. B., & Reed III, R. R. (2007). Population aging, foreign direct investment, and tax competition (Working Paper No. 0710). Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation. https://ideas.repec.org/p/btx/wpaper/0710.html
Davison, U. O., Cajetan, C. A., & John, T. G. (2024). Effects of inflation rate and money supply on foreign direct investments in Nigeria. Nigerian Journal of Management Sciences, 25(1b). https://nigerianjournalofmanagementsciences.com/effects-of-inflation-rate-and-money-supply-on-foreign-directinvestments-in-nigeria/
Donghui, Z., Yasin, G., & Zaman, S. (2018). Trade openness and FDI inflows: A comparative study of Asian countries. European Online Journal of Natural and Social Sciences, 7(2), 386–396. https://european-science.com/eojnss/article/view/5289
Edwards, S. (1990). Capital flows, foreign direct investment, and debt-equity swaps in developing countries (Working Paper No. 3497). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w3497
Eshkevarjiri, T., Alipour, M. S., & Gholami, E. (2018). The effect of aging on economic growth by using regional accounts. Journal of Population Association of Iran, 11(22), 138–155. [In Persian]. https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_30189.html
Froot, K., & Stein, J. (1991). Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: An imperfect capital markets approach. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 196, 1191–1218. https://doi.org/10.2307/2937961
Ghavidel, S., & Mirghiasi, N. (2017). Population aging, life expectancy and economic growth. Iranian Economic Research, 22(73), 159–196. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2018.8302
Gruber, J., & Wise, D. (1998). Social security and retirement: An international comparison. The American Economic Review, 88(2), 158–163. http://www.jstor.org/stable/116911
Harrison, A., & Revenga, A. (1995). The effects of trade policy reform: What do we really know? (Working Paper No. 5225). NBER. https://doi.org/10.3386/w5225
Hasanzadeh, M., Farhang, A., & Mohammadpour, A. (2022). The effect of population aging on economic growth (study of MENAP member countries). Journal of Population Association of Iran, 16(31), 217–247. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22034/jpai.2022.526835.1178
Herbertsson, T. T., & Zoega, G. (1999). Trade surpluses and life-cycle saving behaviour. Economics Letters, 65(2), 227–237. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(99)00148-2
Higgins, M., & Williamson, J. G. (1997). Asian demography and foreign capital dependence (Working Paper No. 5560). NBER. https://doi.org/10.3386/w5560
Hossain, M. S., & Mitra, R. (2013). A dynamic panel analysis of the determinants of FDI in Africa. Economics Bulletin, 33(2), 1606–1614. http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2013/Volume33/EB-13-V33-I2-P150.pdf
Hossain, M. S., Mitra, R., & Hossain, M. I. (2018). The determinants of inbound FDI: Asia on a reappraisal. Economics Bulletin, 38(4), 2500–2508. http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2018/Volume38/EB-18-V38-I4-P226.pdf
Hu, Q., Lei, X., & Zhao, B. (2021). Demographic changes and economic growth: Impact and mechanisms. China Economic Journal, 14(3), 223–242. https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2020.1865647
International Monetary Fund. (1993). Balance of payments manual (5th ed.). Washington, D.C.
Kashanian, Z., Raghfar, H., & Mousavi, M. (2019). Economic consequences of population aging on the Iranian economy (overlapping generations general equilibrium model). Iranian Economic Research, 24(78), 31–60. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2019.10162
Kim, S., & Lee, J. W. (2008). Demographic changes, saving, and current account: An analysis based on a panel VAR model. Japan and the World Economy, 20(2), 236–256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2006.11.005
Lautier, M., & Moreaub, F. (2012). Domestic investment and FDI in developing countries: The missing link. Journal of Economic Development, 37(1), 1–23.
Lee, R., & Mason, A. (2011). Population aging and the generational economy: A global perspective. Edward Elgar Publishing. https://ssrn.com/abstract=1864805
Li, X., & Deng, G. (2018). Population aging, foreign direct investment, and economic growth: An analysis based on the economic growth model of FDI. Social Sciences in Yunnan, 4, 65–71.
Li, Y., Chen, T., & Zhang, Z. (2024). The impact of population aging on FDI: A panel data analysis based on 27 segments in China’s manufacturing industry. PLOS ONE, 19(2), e0297485. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0297485
Lin, J. (2024). Will population aging attract foreign investment? An empirical study based on provincial panel data in China. Transactions on Economics, Business and Management Research, 7, 313–322. https://doi.org/10.62051/gqshdn72
Liu, X., Wang, C., & Wei, Y. (2002). Causal links between foreign direct investment and trade in China. China Economic Review, 12(2), 190–202. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1043-951X(01)00050-5
Loree, D. W., & Guisinger, S. E. (1995). Policy and non-policy determinants of U.S. equity foreign direct investment. Journal of International Business Studies, 26(2), 281–299. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8490174
Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New introduction to multiple time series analysis. Springer Verlag. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-27752-1
McMillan, M. S. (1999). Foreign direct investment: Leader or follower? (Discussion Paper No. 99). Tufts University. https://ideas.repec.org/p/tuf/tuftec/9901.html
Miri, N., Maddah, M., & Raghfar, H. (2019). Aging and economic growth. Salmand: Iranian Journal of Ageing, 13(5), 626–637. [In Persian]. http://dx.doi.org/10.32598/SIJA.13.Special-Issue.626
Mitra, R., & Abedin, M. T. (2020). Population ageing and FDI inflows in Japan: ARDL approach to cointegration analysis. Economics Bulletin, 40(2), 1814–1825. http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2020/Volume40/EB-20-V40-I2-P157.pdf
Mitra, R., & Abedin, M. T. (2021). Population ageing and FDI inflows in OECD countries: A dynamic panel cointegration analysis. Applied Economics Letters, 28(13), 1071–1075. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2020.1796914
Mitra, R., Abedin, M. T., & Sen, K. K. (2024). How population ageing affects FDI flows: A tale of South Korea. New Zealand Economic Papers. https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2024.2415138
Moheby Meymandi, M., Koosheshi, M., & Souri, A. (2023). Population growth, changing age structure and its economic consequences in Iran: Decomposition and analysis of the share of age groups. Journal of Population Association of Iran, 17(34), 309–346. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22034/jpai.2023.563001.1253
Moosa, I. (2002). Foreign direct investment: Theory, evidence and practice. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781403907493
Moses, C. O., Anigbogu, T. U., Okoli, M. I., & Anyanwu, K. N. (2013). Domestic investment and foreign direct investment flows in Nigeria. IOSR Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 13(6), 1–12.
Narciso, A. (2010). The impact of population ageing on international capital flows (MPRA Paper No. 26457). University Library of Munich. https://ssrn.com/abstract=1702995
Ndikumana, L., & Verick, S. (2008). The linkages between FDI and domestic investment: Unravelling the developmental impact of foreign investment in sub-Saharan Africa. Development Policy Review, 26(6), 713–726. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7679.2008.00430.x
Osinubi, T. S., & Amaghionyeodiwe, L. A. (2009). Foreign direct investment and exchange rate volatility in Nigeria. International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, 6(2), 83–116. https://doi.org/10.21859/bfup-07022
Raghfar, H., Mousavi, M., & Ardalan, Z. (2014). Aging phenomenon impacts and efficiency changes effects on pension and macroeconomic variables using a dynamic general equilibrium approach-overlapping generation model (OLG). Journal of Population Association of Iran, 9(17), 7–35. [In Persian]. https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_20067.html
Schmitz, A., & Bieri, J. (1972). EEC tariffs and U.S. direct investment. European Economic Review, 3(3), 259–270. https://doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(72)90007-4
Schulz, J. H. (2001). The economics of aging. Auburn House. https://doi.org/10.15453/0191-5096.2347
Sharma, R., & Kaur, M. (2013). Causal links between foreign direct investments and trade: A comparative study of India and China. Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics, 6(11), 75–91. https://www.ejbe.org/index.php/EJBE/article/view/108
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UN-DESA). (2023). World population prospects: The 2023 revision, online demographic profiles. DESA. https://population.un.org/wpp/
World Bank Group country classifications by income level for FY24 (July 1, 2023–June 30, 2024). World Bank Blogs. Retrieved June 12, 2024, from https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/world-bank-country-classifications-by-income-level-for-2024-2025
Xinpeng, X., Yunning, H., Fuxia, G., & Yanting, J. (2022). The impact of population aging on FDI inflow in China—An empirical analysis based on provincial panel data. Journal of Business Theory and Practice, 10(2), 21–32. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0297485
Zhao, L., Zhang, Y., & Xie, Y. (2023). Does the aging of the Chinese population have an impact on outward foreign direct investment? Sustainability, 15(18), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151813995
Zhong, S. K. L. (2009). The impact of dependence ratio on household savings rate. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 1, 42–51.
Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. (1992). Further evidence of great crash, the oil price shock and unit root hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251–270. https://doi.org/10.2307/1391541

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از 23 مهر 1404

  • تاریخ دریافت 11 اردیبهشت 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 03 شهریور 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 05 شهریور 1404