نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
1 دانشجوی دکتری جمعیتشناسی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی (واحد علوم و تحقیقات)، تهران، ایران
2 استادیار جمعیت شناسی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی (واحد گرمسار)، گرمسار، ایران
3 استادیار جمعیت شناسی، گروه علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
عنوان مقاله [English]
Fertility changes have been the most important population issue in Iran in recent years, which led to the announcement of population policies, emphasizing the role of all organizations related to population issues. The purpose of this study is to investigate the fertility trend at the last three censuses based on the parity progression ratio. This indicator shows the proportion of women of a given parity who want more children. Therefore, the information about married women aged 15 to 49 in the 2% of the sample of the 2006 to 2016 census, which is equivalent to 983,000 persons, were analyzed. Parity progression ratios were almost constant from childless to one child (85%) and from one child to two children (76%) but decreased from three to four children (75% to 61%). The cumulative fertility increased from 2.3 in 2006 to 5.2 in 2016. As a result, the fertility of married women is acceptable but population policies based on strengthening economic and welfare infrastructure such as reducing inflation, increasing employment and improving housing will lead to increased marriage and ultimately enhance childbearing.