ماندن یا مهاجرت دوباره مهاجران بازگشته افغانستانی از ایران به کشورشان و عوامل تعیین‌کنندۀ آن

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه جمعیت شناسی، دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشیار گروه جمعیت شناسی، دانشگاه تهران

3 کارشناس ارشد جمعیت‌شناسی، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

با توجه به پویایی‌های سیاسی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی دنیای معاصر، بازگشت مهاجران و پناهندگان در سال‌های اخیر اهمیتی فزاینده یافته است. با این حال، علیرغم بازگشت‌های جمعی بزرگی که رخ داده است، پایداری این بازگشت‌ها هیچ‌گاه از پیش تضمین شده نیست. این مقاله به بررسی پایداری بازگشتِ پناهندگان افغانستانی به کشورشان از ایران و اثر عوامل جمعیتی، زمینه‌ای و ساختاری بر تصمیم آنها به ماندن در افغانستان یا مهاجرت دوباره می‌پردازد. بدین منظور، پیمایشی با حجم نمونه 425 نفری در شهرهای کابل، هرات و مزار شریف صورت گرفت. بر اساس نتایج به دست آمده، تجربۀ بازگشت پناهندگان افغانستانی از ایران به افغانستان چندان پایدار نیست چرا که بیش از نیمی از بازگشت‌کنندگان قصد مهاجرت دوباره از افغانستان را دارند یا نسبت به ماندن در افغانستان مردد هستند. نتایج تحلیل چندمتغیره نشان داد که متغیرهای قومیت، تحصیلات، وضعیت زناشویی، ترکیب همسایگان، مدت مهاجرت در ایران، نوع بازگشت، رضایت اجتماعی، احساس تبعیض، و سطح بازادغام اجتماعی تأثیر معناداری بر ماندن یا مهاجرت دوباره دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Staying or Remigration among Afghan Returnees and its Determinants

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi 1
  • Rasoul Sadeghi 2
  • Abdollah Mohammadi 3
1 Professor, Department of Demography, University of Tehran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Demography, University of Tehran
3 M.A. in Demography, University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

Considering the political, social and economic dynamics of the contemporary world, the return of migrants and refugees has become important in recent years. However, despite the mass returns that have taken place in recent decades, the sustainability of these returns has never been guaranteed. This article examines the sustainability of the return of Afghan refugees to their home country from Iran and studies the effects of demographic, contextual and structural factors on their decisions to stay in Afghanistan or re-migrate. For this purpose, a survey of 425 people was conducted in Kabul, Herat and Mazar-e-Sharif cities in 2014. According to the results, the return experience of Afghan refugees from Iran to Afghanistan is not successful and sustainable, as more than half of the returnees are planning to remigrate from the country or are hesitant to stay in Afghanistan. The results of multivariate analysis indicated that such variables as ethnicity, education, marital status, neighbors' composition, duration of migration in Iran, type of return, social satisfaction, feeling of discrimination, and social reintegration levels have a significant effect on staying or re-migrating among the returnees.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Return migration
  • Social-economic reintegration
  • Migratory intention
  • Remigration
  • Afghan returnees

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نامه انجمن جمعیت شناسی ایران
دوره 11، شماره 22
اسفند 1395
صفحه 10-41

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 06 اسفند 1396
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 06 اسفند 1396

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