شمار جمعیت: یک معمای تاریخی

نوع مقاله : مقاله مروری

نویسنده

دکترای تخصصی در جمعیت‌شناسی و بازنشسته مرکز آمار ایران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

شمار جمعیت و آهنگ رشد آن از دیر باز مورد توجۀ حاکمان، سیاستمداران و سپس جمعیت‌شناسان قرار داشته است. اما آرای جمعیت‌شناسان در این خصوص، نه تنها در زمان و مکان‌های مختلف، که در زمان و مکان واحد نیز یکسان و همسو با یکدیگر نیست. گروهی از پیشینیان طرفدار جمعیت زیاد و رشد سریع آن هستند و گروهی دیگر این شرایط را برنمی‌تابند و عواقب ان را جز نکبت، فلاکت، فقر و فساد نمی‌دانند و بدین‌گونه معمایی پدید آمده است. معمایی که گویی همزاد جمعیت و تمدن بشری است و از صبح تاریخ تا عصر حاضر همچنان ادامه دارد. پژوهش حاضر می‌کوشد از طریق بررسی آرا و اندیشه‌های جمعیتی پیشینیان در طول تاریخ، فصل مشترکی برای این نظریه‌ها بیابد و به حل این معما کمک کند. نتیجۀ پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که در بین آرا و نظرات اندیشمندان از دیرباز تاکنون دیدگاه تقریبا مشترکی وجود دارد. این که افزایش شمار جمعیت نامحدود نیست و سقف معینی دارد و در ثانی این سقف- که آن را سقف یا حد معیشتی نامیده‌اند- در جوامع مختلف متفاوت است. منظور آنان از این سقف، حداکثر تعداد جمعیتی است که جامعه می‌تواند معیشت آنان را تأمین کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Population Size: A Historical Mystery

نویسنده [English]

  • Mohammad Hossein Nejatian
Ph.D in Demography, Statistical Center of Iran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The number of population and its rate of growth have long been the focus of rulers, politicians and then demographers. But the opinions of demographers in this regard, not only in different times and places, but also in the same time and place are not the same and aligned with each other. A group of predecessors are in favor of a large population and its rapid growth, while another group does not accept these conditions and do not consider its consequences to be anything but misery, poverty, and corruption, and this is how a mystery has emerged. As if it is the cognate of human population and civilization and continues from the dawn of history to the present day. The current research tries to find a joint principle for these theories by examining the population opinions and thoughts of the predecessors throughout history and help to solve this mystery. The result of the research shows that there is almost a common point of view among the opinions of scholars, namely the increase in the number of people is not unlimited and has a certain ceiling, furthermore, this ceiling, which is called the ceiling or limit of subsistence, differs in different societies. According to them, this ceiling is the maximum number of people that the society can provide for their livelihood.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Population growth
  • Birth rate
  • Demographic perspectives
  • Population size
  • Pronatalism
  • Antinatalism
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