اثر زمان‌بندی موالید و سطح تعدیل‌شده باروری در ایران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری جمعیت‌شناسی، دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشیار جمعیت‌شناسی، بخش جامعه‌شناسی و برنامه‌ریزی اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز

چکیده

میزان باروری کل که از مجموع میزان‌های ویژه سنی باروری در یک سال معین محاسبه می‌شود، یک شاخص عمومی برای باروری به‌حساب می‌آید. مشکلی که در رابطه با محاسبه این شاخص وجود دارد، این است که شاخصی دوره­ای است که بر موالید و زنان یک سال خاص اشاره دارد. شاخص دوره ای باروری با تغییر در زمان بندی فرزندآوری امکان تحریف دارد. وقتی زنان فرزندآوری خود را به تأخیر می‌اندازند، میزان‌های باروری به ‌احتمال ‌زیاد کمتر از حد واقعی نشان داده می شوند.  سؤال این است که چگونه می‌توان سطوح واقعی باروری نسل‌هایی که هنوز به پایان دوره باروری خود نرسیده­اند را از شاخص‌های دوره­ای محاسبه کرد؟ روش‌های مختلفی برای تعدیل شاخص‌های باروری دوره برای تغییرات زمان‌بندی باروری (تمپو)، عرضه شده است. در این پژوهش به بررسی سیر تکاملی این روش‌ها با تأکید بر روش ارائه‌شده توسط بونگارت و فیینی  (1998) پرداخته شده است. سپس این روش برای برآورد باروری ایران در دوره 1385 تا 1390 بر اساس سرشماری‌های 1385 و 1395 و داده‌های بررسی جمعیت و سلامت 1379 به کار گرفته شده است. نتایج تحلیل میزان­های باروری کشور نشان می­دهد که با توجه به تغییرات میانگین‌های سن فرزندآوری در کشور شاهد تأثیرات انحرافی زمانبندی باروری در میزان­های باروری کشور هستیم.

کلیدواژه‌ها


-      عینی زیناب، حسن و شمس قهفرخی، فریده (1391)، تاثیر تمپو (زمان­بندی فرزندآوری) بر میزان باروری کل در ایران، نامه انجمن جمعیتشناسی ایران، سال هفتم، شماره 13، بهار و تابستان 1391.

-      Abbasi-Shavazi, M.J, P. McDonald, and M. Hosseini-Chavoshi )2009(. The Fertility Transition in Iran: Revolution and Reproduction. New York: Springer, 2009

-      Barbi, E., J. Bongaarts and J.W. Vaupel (eds). )2008). How Long Do We Live? Demographic Models and Reflections on Tempo Effects. Berlin and Rostock: Springer and Max Planck Society.

-      Bhrolchain,M. (2007). “Five Reasons for Measuring Period Fertility”, Working Paper A08/05, University of Southampton, Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute.

-      Bongaarts, J. (1999). "The Fertility Impact of Changes in the Timing of Childbearing in the Developing World." Population Studies 53: 277-289.

-      Bongaarts, J. (2002). “The End of the Fertility Transition in the Developed World.” Populationand Development Review 28: 419-43, 589.

-      Bongaarts, J. and G. Feeney. (1998). “On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility.” Population and Development Review 24(2): 271-291.

-      Bongaarts, J. and G. Feeney. (2000). “On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Reply.” Population andDevelopment Review 26: 560-64.

-      Bongaarts, J. and G. Feeney (2010). "When Is a Tempo Effect a Tempo Distortion?" Genus 66(2): 1-15.

-      Bongaarts, John; Sobotka, Tomáš (2011). Demographic Explanations for The Recent Rise in Europe’s Fertility: Analysis Based on the Tempo and Parity Adjusted Total Fertility Rate. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America 2011. Washington, D.C.

-      Bongoh Kye (2010). Fertility Transition in South Korea, 1960 – 2005: Tempo Effect and Demographic Translation. California Center for Population Research

-      Cox, Peter R.  (1976). Demography. Cambridge University Press.

-      Demeny, P. and G. McNicoll (eds) (2002). Encyclopedia of Population, Macmillan Reference USA.

-      Ediev, D.M. (2008). On the Theory of Distortions of Period Estimates of the Quantum Caused by the Tempo Changes. Vienna Institute of Demography, European Demographic Research Paper 3/2008. 84 pp.

-      Frejka, T. and G. Calot. (2001). “Cohort Reproductive Patterns in Low-Fertility Countries.” Population and Development Review 27: 103-32.

-      Frejka, Tomas and John Ross. (2001). "Paths to Sub Replacement Fertility: The Empirical Evidence." Population and Development Review 27: 213-254.

-      Hajnal, J. (1947). “The Analysis of Birth Statistics in The Light of the Recent International Recovery of the Birth-Rate,” Population Studies 1: 137–164.

-      Imhoff Van, E. (2001) “On the Impossibility of Inferring Cohort Fertility Measures from Period Fertility Measures.” Demographic Research 5: 23-64. 28

-      Imhoff, Van E. and N. Keilman. (2000). “On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Comment”. Population and Development Review 26(3): 549-553.

-      Kim, Y.J. and R. Schoen. (1999). “Changes in Timing and the Measurement of Fertility.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America in New York.

-      Kim, Y.J. and R. Schoen. (2000). “On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Limits to the Bongaarts- Feeney Adjustment.” Population and Development Review 26: 554-59.

-      Kohler, Hans-Peter and Dimiter Philipov. (2001). Variance Effects in the Bongaarts-Feeney Formula, Demography 38: 1-16.

-      Kohler, H-P and J.A. Ortega. (2002b). "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures: Assessing the Implications of Delayed Childbearing for Cohort Fertility in Sweden, the Netherlands, and Spain". Demographic Research 6: 145-190.

-      Kohler, H-P and J.A. Ortega. (2002a). “Tempo-Adjusted Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility.” Demographic Research 6: 91- 144.

-      Lesthaeghe, R. and P. Willems. (1999). “Is Low Fertility a Temporary Phenomenon in the European Union?” Population and DevelopmentReview 25(2): 211-228.

-      Marc, L. (2011). "Tempo Effects and their Relevance in Demographic Analysis. Comparative Population Studies." Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft 35(3): 415-446.

-      Philipov, D. and H.-P. Kohler. (2001). “Tempo Effects in the Fertility Decline in Eastern Europe: Evidence from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, 46 Hungary, Poland and Russia.” European Journal of Population 17(1): 37-60.

-      Rowland, Donald T. (2003). Demographic Methods and Concepts. Oxford University Press.

-      Ryder, Norman B. (1956). “Problems of Trend Determination during a Transition in Fertility.” Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly 34: 5–21.

-      Ryder, Norman B. (1964). “The Process of Demographic Translation.” Demography 1: 74–82.

-      Ryder, Norman B. (1980). “Components of Temporal Variations in American Fertility,” in R. W. Hiorns (ed.), Demographic Patterns in Developed Societies. London: Taylor & Francis, pp. 15–54.

-      Ryder, Norman B. (1983). “Cohort and Period Measures of Changing Fertility,” in Rodolfo A. Bulatao and Ronald D. Lee (eds.), Determinants of Fertility in Developing Countries. New York: Academic Press, Vol. 2, pp. 737–756.

-      Schoen, R. (2004). “Timing Effects and the Interpretation of Period Fertility.” Demography 41(4): 801-819. 47

-      Smallwood, S. (2002a). "New Estimates of Trends in Births by Birth Order in England and Wales." Population Trends 108: 32-48.

-      Smallwood, S. (2002b). "The Effect of Changes in Timing of Childbearing on Measuring Fertility in England and Wales." Population Trends 109: 36-45.

-      Smith, S. K., Tayman, J. Swanson, David A (2002) State and Local Population Projections: Methodology and Analysis. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis.

-      Sobotka, T. (2003). “Tempo-Quantum and Period-Cohort Interplay in Fertility Changes in Europe. Evidence from the Czech Republic, Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden.” Demographic Research 8, Article 6.

-      Weeks, John R. (2002). Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues. San Diego State University.

-      Zeng Yi and K. C. Land. (2001). “A Sensitivity Analysis of the Bongaarts- Feeney Method for Adjusting Bias in Observed Period Total Fertility Rates.” Demography 38(1): 17-28.

-      Zeng, Y. and K.C. Land. (2002). “Adjusting Period Tempo Changes with an Extension of Ryder’s Basic Translation Equation.” Demography 39: 269-85.

 

-      عینی زیناب، حسن و شمس قهفرخی، فریده (1391)، تاثیر تمپو (زمان­بندی فرزندآوری) بر میزان باروری کل در ایران، نامه انجمن جمعیتشناسی ایران، سال هفتم، شماره 13، بهار و تابستان 1391.

-      Abbasi-Shavazi, M.J, P. McDonald, and M. Hosseini-Chavoshi )2009(. The Fertility Transition in Iran: Revolution and Reproduction. New York: Springer, 2009

-      Barbi, E., J. Bongaarts and J.W. Vaupel (eds). )2008). How Long Do We Live? Demographic Models and Reflections on Tempo Effects. Berlin and Rostock: Springer and Max Planck Society.

-      Bhrolchain,M. (2007). “Five Reasons for Measuring Period Fertility”, Working Paper A08/05, University of Southampton, Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute.

-      Bongaarts, J. (1999). "The Fertility Impact of Changes in the Timing of Childbearing in the Developing World." Population Studies 53: 277-289.

-      Bongaarts, J. (2002). “The End of the Fertility Transition in the Developed World.” Populationand Development Review 28: 419-43, 589.

-      Bongaarts, J. and G. Feeney. (1998). “On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility.” Population and Development Review 24(2): 271-291.

-      Bongaarts, J. and G. Feeney. (2000). “On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Reply.” Population andDevelopment Review 26: 560-64.

-      Bongaarts, J. and G. Feeney (2010). "When Is a Tempo Effect a Tempo Distortion?" Genus 66(2): 1-15.

-      Bongaarts, John; Sobotka, Tomáš (2011). Demographic Explanations for The Recent Rise in Europe’s Fertility: Analysis Based on the Tempo and Parity Adjusted Total Fertility Rate. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America 2011. Washington, D.C.

-      Bongoh Kye (2010). Fertility Transition in South Korea, 1960 – 2005: Tempo Effect and Demographic Translation. California Center for Population Research

-      Cox, Peter R.  (1976). Demography. Cambridge University Press.

-      Demeny, P. and G. McNicoll (eds) (2002). Encyclopedia of Population, Macmillan Reference USA.

-      Ediev, D.M. (2008). On the Theory of Distortions of Period Estimates of the Quantum Caused by the Tempo Changes. Vienna Institute of Demography, European Demographic Research Paper 3/2008. 84 pp.

-      Frejka, T. and G. Calot. (2001). “Cohort Reproductive Patterns in Low-Fertility Countries.” Population and Development Review 27: 103-32.

-      Frejka, Tomas and John Ross. (2001). "Paths to Sub Replacement Fertility: The Empirical Evidence." Population and Development Review 27: 213-254.

-      Hajnal, J. (1947). “The Analysis of Birth Statistics in The Light of the Recent International Recovery of the Birth-Rate,” Population Studies 1: 137–164.

-      Imhoff Van, E. (2001) “On the Impossibility of Inferring Cohort Fertility Measures from Period Fertility Measures.” Demographic Research 5: 23-64. 28

-      Imhoff, Van E. and N. Keilman. (2000). “On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Comment”. Population and Development Review 26(3): 549-553.

-      Kim, Y.J. and R. Schoen. (1999). “Changes in Timing and the Measurement of Fertility.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America in New York.

-      Kim, Y.J. and R. Schoen. (2000). “On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Limits to the Bongaarts- Feeney Adjustment.” Population and Development Review 26: 554-59.

-      Kohler, Hans-Peter and Dimiter Philipov. (2001). Variance Effects in the Bongaarts-Feeney Formula, Demography 38: 1-16.

-      Kohler, H-P and J.A. Ortega. (2002b). "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures: Assessing the Implications of Delayed Childbearing for Cohort Fertility in Sweden, the Netherlands, and Spain". Demographic Research 6: 145-190.

-      Kohler, H-P and J.A. Ortega. (2002a). “Tempo-Adjusted Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility.” Demographic Research 6: 91- 144.

-      Lesthaeghe, R. and P. Willems. (1999). “Is Low Fertility a Temporary Phenomenon in the European Union?” Population and DevelopmentReview 25(2): 211-228.

-      Marc, L. (2011). "Tempo Effects and their Relevance in Demographic Analysis. Comparative Population Studies." Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft 35(3): 415-446.

-      Philipov, D. and H.-P. Kohler. (2001). “Tempo Effects in the Fertility Decline in Eastern Europe: Evidence from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, 46 Hungary, Poland and Russia.” European Journal of Population 17(1): 37-60.

-      Rowland, Donald T. (2003). Demographic Methods and Concepts. Oxford University Press.

-      Ryder, Norman B. (1956). “Problems of Trend Determination during a Transition in Fertility.” Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly 34: 5–21.

-      Ryder, Norman B. (1964). “The Process of Demographic Translation.” Demography 1: 74–82.

-      Ryder, Norman B. (1980). “Components of Temporal Variations in American Fertility,” in R. W. Hiorns (ed.), Demographic Patterns in Developed Societies. London: Taylor & Francis, pp. 15–54.

-      Ryder, Norman B. (1983). “Cohort and Period Measures of Changing Fertility,” in Rodolfo A. Bulatao and Ronald D. Lee (eds.), Determinants of Fertility in Developing Countries. New York: Academic Press, Vol. 2, pp. 737–756.

-      Schoen, R. (2004). “Timing Effects and the Interpretation of Period Fertility.” Demography 41(4): 801-819. 47

-      Smallwood, S. (2002a). "New Estimates of Trends in Births by Birth Order in England and Wales." Population Trends 108: 32-48.

-      Smallwood, S. (2002b). "The Effect of Changes in Timing of Childbearing on Measuring Fertility in England and Wales." Population Trends 109: 36-45.

-      Smith, S. K., Tayman, J. Swanson, David A (2002) State and Local Population Projections: Methodology and Analysis. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis.

-      Sobotka, T. (2003). “Tempo-Quantum and Period-Cohort Interplay in Fertility Changes in Europe. Evidence from the Czech Republic, Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden.” Demographic Research 8, Article 6.

-      Weeks, John R. (2002). Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues. San Diego State University.

-      Zeng Yi and K. C. Land. (2001). “A Sensitivity Analysis of the Bongaarts- Feeney Method for Adjusting Bias in Observed Period Total Fertility Rates.” Demography 38(1): 17-28.

-      Zeng, Y. and K.C. Land. (2002). “Adjusting Period Tempo Changes with an Extension of Ryder’s Basic Translation Equation.” Demography 39: 269-85.