سیر تکاملی جمعیت‌شناسی از ابتدا تا ظهور مدل‌سازی عامل محور

نوع مقاله : مقاله مروری

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه جمعیت شناسی، دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

امروزه کاربرد مدل‌سازی عامل محور به منظور تجزیه و تحلیل مسائل جمعیتی مورد توجه جمعیت‌شناسان قرار گرفته  و جایگاه جمعیت­شناسی در شناخت عمیقتر روندهای جمعیتی را ارتقاء بخشیده است . هدف از مقاله حاضر، بررسی سیر تکاملی جمعیت­شناسی از ابتدا تا پیدایش و استفاده از مدل‌سازی عامل محور در مطالعات جمعیتی است. با مرور ادبیات موضوع، عدم توانایی پارادایم­های جمعیتی در برقراری ارتباط بین سطوح خرد و کلان به عنوان یک محدودیت در تحلیل مسائل پیچیده جمعیتی روشن می­شود. امروزه با توجه به توسعه ریاضیات و تولید نرم‌افزارها و پردازنده­های قوی، مدل‌سازی عامل محور در بین جمعیت­شناسان اهمیت ویژه­ای دارد. سیاست‌گذاری مبتنی بر مدل‌سازی عامل محور به عنوان یک راهکار کارآمد با قابلیت تحلیل روابط بین سطح خرد و سطح کلان، احتمال تحقق اهداف دنبال شده به‌وسیله سیاست­گذاریهای کلان را افزایش می­دهد. این مقاله، با مرور سیر تکاملی پارادایم­های مختلف و بیان ضرورت بهره­گیری از رویکرد مدل‌سازی عامل محور در فرآیند تحلیل مسائل جمعیت­شناسی، جایگاه مدل‌سازی عامل محور به همراه نقاط قوت وضعف آن در مقایسه با سایر پارادایم‌ها را بررسی و معرفی می‌کند. در پایان پیشنهاداتی برای استفاده از مدل‌سازی عامل محور در تحلیل مسائل جمعیتی ایران ارائه می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The evolutionary path of demography from the beginning to the emergence of agent-based modeling

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi 1
  • Nasibeh Esmaeili 2
1 Professor, Department of Demography, University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

Application of the agent-based modeling in analyzing population issues has attracted the attention of demographers, and the status of demography in deeper understanding of population trends has been improved. The aim of this paper is to review the evolutionary path of demography from the beginning to the emergence and usage of the agent-based modeling in population studies. The literature review revealed the inability of demographic paradigms in connecting the micro and macro levels as one of the main limitations in the analysis of complicated demographic issues. Today, the agent-based modeling is of particular importance among demographers due to development of mathematics and production of powerful software and processors. Policy making based on the agent-based modeling is an efficient approach with the ability to analyze the micro- and macro-level relationships, increaseing the likelihood of achieving the goals pursued by macro policies. By reviewing the evolution of different paradigms and expressing the need to use the agent-based modeling approach in the process of demographic analysis, this article reviews and introduces the position of the agent-based modeling with its strengths and weaknesses in comparison with other paradigms. Finally, some suggestions for using the agent-based modeling in the analysis of Iran's demographic issues are presented.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agent-based modeling
  • paradigm
  • policy-making
  • micro levels
  • macro levels
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