Population Simulation of Small Areas in the Base Year

Document Type : Original Article

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Abstract

Population predictions in Iran are normally conducted in a large scale, i.e., at national and provincial levels, due to the lack of ancillary information. However, Population projection with different features in small areas (city, district, municipality, etc.) increases the ability to meet the statistical needs of researchers, policy makers, and planners. With respect to the fact that all the small area data are not generally available, moreover knowing the households and individuals' frequency distribution (e.g. age by gender, type of household and etc.) is vital, the synthetic simulation of small areas populations with the targeted features seems to be of great importance. Since access to many population and population features in small areas are not possible through censuses, many researchers have been seeking for methodologies to simulate the small areas populations. In recent years, a variety of methods have been invented for population simulation including the sample-based method. This paper has used this method to simulate populations of selected small areas of different features with a synthetic method for the base year 2006 by suggesting remedy for its drawbacks. Moreover, with respect to some measures, performance of the method is compared to the censual data.

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References

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Journal of Population Association of Iran
Volume 10, Issue 19
May 2015
Pages 89-107

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  • Receive Date: 29 May 2017
  • Accept Date: 29 May 2017

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