https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/ Journal of Population Association of Iran en daily 1 Fri, 20 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0330 Fri, 20 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0330 https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_730314.html The topic of marriage, especially during the stages between courtship and the formal marriage contract, is one of the fundamental challenges in today's society, influenced by social, economic, and cultural factors. This research aims to identify the obstacles and challenges present in this sensitive stage. The study uses a qualitative method with a thematic analysis approach. Data were collected and analyzed through in-depth interviews with 22 young people (11 women and 11 men) from Yazd who have experienced failure at this stage of marriage. The results reveal five main themes: individual-psychological factors, economic-financial obstacles, cultural-educational differences, management strategies, and structural pressures, which are key factors contributing to marriage failure. Ultimately, the research suggests that improving communication skills, empowering psychological-social programs, providing targeted economic support, conducting workshops for intergenerational dialogue, and establishing a national monitoring system should be prioritized to reduce failures and facilitate the marriage process. These findings underscore the importance of macro-level policymaking to support young couples. https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_731354.html Over the past few decades, the age at first marriage among young people has increased, and recent evidence suggests a rise in interactions with the opposite sex among youth. Studying the desire to marry is important because any change in the desire to marry is can affect fertility behavior. The present study aimed to investigate the relationship between opposite-sex interaction experience and the desire to marry among single men in Tehran. The theoretical framework draws upon modernization theory, social action theory, social capital theory, social exchange theory, and rational choice theory. Data were collected through a survey utilizing a researcher-designed questionnaire. The statistical population consisted of single (never-married) men aged 18–49 residing across the 22 districts of Tehran. The sample size, estimated using Cochran’s formula, included 384 individuals. Sampling was conducted through a combination of multistage stratified and simple random methods. Findings showed that opposite-sex interaction experience, religiosity, social media use, trust in the opposite sex, desire for variety, employment status, and age were, respectively, the strongest predictors of desire to marry among single men. A noteworthy finding was the mediating role of opposite-sex interaction experience. This variable was influenced by religiosity and social media use, while it also affected trust in the opposite sex and the desire for variety, which ultimately influenced desirt for marriage. Based on the findings, it is recommended to emphasize media literacy education, enhance the economic empowerment of youth, revise approaches to religious upbringing, institutionalize spiritual beliefs and values among the younger generation, and increase awareness regarding the effects of interactions with the opposite sex on spouse selection. https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_722782.html Childbearing is simultaneously a biological and profoundly social behavior, significantly influenced by social norms. Moreover, it is a behavior in the realm of private decisions of couples carrying a heavy burden of future responsibilities for them. Thus, it is fundamentally a decision based on couples' bounded rationality. Given the recent decline in fertility rates, this study examines the socio-cultural contexts underlying anxieties related to childbearing among voluntarily childless couples and couples with a single child. Utilizing a qualitative approach based on Strauss and Corbin's systematic Grounded Theory methodology and theoretical sampling, the research conducted 30 in-depth interviews—15 with individuals from voluntarily childless couples married for at least three years, and 15 with individuals from couples who intentionally have only one child aged over five years. Data were gathered through semi-structured interviews, and analysis was conducted through open, axial, and selective coding. The core category identified in the research is "childbearing as bounded rationality," and the central phenomenon is "altered cognitive frameworks." The findings indicate significant shifts in couples' cognitive structures, with rationalism and individualism at the core, facilitating the rational decision to remain childless or to have only one child. https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_736586.html This study aims to analyze the factors influencing the behavioral attitudes of Mashhad citizens toward the Rejuvenation of the Population and Support of the Family law. Utilizing a survey technique, data were gathered in 2023 through a researcher-made questionnaire. The target population comprised male and female residents of Mashhad, with a sample size of 429 selected via multi-stage cluster sampling. Descriptive results reveal a low level of public awareness pertaining to the law (mean score of 2.87 out of 5). Furthermore, attitudes toward the law manifest as negative or indifferent, specifically within the emotional (2.22 out of 5) and behavioral (1.86 out of 5) dimensions, both of which fall significantly lower than expected. Multivariate regression analysis identified attitudes toward macro-structural socio-economic conditions, level of awareness regarding the law, and age as significant predictors. The findings demonstrate that perceptions of macro-structural conditions (e.g., recession, inflation, and future outlook) exert the most profound influence on behavioral attitudes. Consequently, successful implementation hinges upon improving macro-structural infrastructures and enhancing public awareness. https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_731552.html This qualitative study explores the various dimensions of quality of life among divorced women in Ilam City, focusing on their experiences both before and after divorce. A rigorous thematic analysis framework was utilized for this research. A purposive sample of 17 divorced women residing in Ilam was recruited through semi-structured interviews. The gathered data were systematically analyzed following Braun and Clarke’s six-phase thematic analysis protocol (2006). The findings reveal that divorce significantly affects four key aspects of quality of life: physical health, psychological well-being, social relationships, and environmental conditions. Prior to divorce, participants reported experiencing severe psychological distress, exposure to marital violence, social ostracism, and considerable economic hardship, all of which substantially diminished their quality of life. In contrast, post-divorce outcomes indicated notable improvements in both physical and mental health, enhanced personal development, and increased social and economic independence. However, persistent challenges remain, including entrenched negative cultural perceptions, ongoing financial limitations, and insufficient institutional support systems. These findings highlight that a complex interplay of individual, socio-cultural, and economic factors influences the quality of life for this vulnerable population. To foster sustainable improvements in their well-being, it is crucial to implement comprehensive, multidimensional interventions that encompass specialized mental health services, economic empowerment initiatives, strengthening of social support networks, and transformative changes in cultural attitudes. https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_722769.html This study examines the effects of stable and nonstable momentum on the population dynamics of Iranian provinces between 1996-2016. The analysis is based on census data from 1996 to 2016, fertility and mortality estimates, and the cohort-component projection method. Stable momentum reflects the long-term effects of fertility on age structure and the deviation between stable and stationary age distributions. In contrast, nonstable momentum indicates the temporary effects of recent fertility changes and the deviation of the current age structure from stability. Findings show that Iran’s total population momentum declined from approximately 1.7 in 1996 to 1.3 in 2016. At the provincial level, Sistan and Baluchestan had the highest total momentum (1.9), while Gilan and Tehran had the lowest (1.0). The decrease in total momentum is mainly due to a reduction in stable momentum and a partial shift toward nonstable momentum. The exit of large birth cohorts from childbearing ages has diminished the temporary effect of nonstable momentum, contributing to the overall decline. The results highlight the value of decomposing momentum into stable and nonstable components, offering a clearer understanding of demographic dynamics. This approach provides new insights into how age structure influences population growth, especially in the context of fertility transitions. https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_730298.html One of the most important demographic challenges of the 21st century is population aging. This phenomenon not only influences the population structure of countries but also impacts various economic, social, political, and cultural aspects. Moreover, it can present opportunities to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). To take advantage of these opportunities, countries must adopt appropriate policies and create an attractive environment for foreign investors. The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of population aging on FDI flows in Iran from 1960 to 2023. The findings indicate a positive and significant long-term relationship between population aging and FDI inflows in Iran. Furthermore, trade openness, broad money supply, and the real effective exchange rate also have a positive and significant long-term impact on FDI inflows in Iran. However, domestic investment exhibits a negative and significant effect on FDI. The findings of this study indicate that population aging can positively influence FDI attraction in Iran. This occurs as reduced demand for labor encourages companies to adopt new technologies through increased investment in research and development. This phenomenon necessitates careful attention from policymakers to its economic and social implications. https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_736587.html The mortality rate due to diseases is one of the key demographic and public health indicators, significantly influenced by geographical, social, and economic determinants. This study seek to analyze the spatial patterns of disease-related mortality in Iran, utilizing data from the 2016 Statistical Yearbook. To achieve this, Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) techniques, including Global and Local Moran’s I, were applied within the ArcGIS environment. The findings demonstrate significant spatial autocorrelation in mortality rates across most disease categories. While the majority of disease-related mortality rates exhibit a clustered spatial distribution, those attributed to pregnancy, childbirth complications, and skin/subcutaneous diseases follows a random pattern. Furthermore, the emergence of robust low-low clusters in the counties surrounding Tehran, as observed in multiple maps, indicates that disease distribution throughout the country is non-random. These results point to regional disparities driven by unequal access to healthcare, socioeconomic conditions, environmental factors, and spatial dependencies. The study findings lend support to the theory of epidemiological polarization, indicating that mortality rates are lower in prosperous regions, whereas less developed areas continue to experience a higher level of mortality. Given these spatial dynamics, it is recommended that health planners and policymakers employ these techniques to identify high-risk areas and optimize resource allocation. Moreover, future studies utilizing advanced spatial data analysis methods could contribute to a deeper understanding of mortality patterns and facilitate the formulation of more effective health policies. https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_730305.html This ethnographic study explores the role of virtual social networks in preserving cultural identity and addressing migration challenges among the Afghan diaspora in France. With the increasing migration and dispersion of Afghans worldwide, the transmission of culture, language, and native values to new generations has become a central concern for this community. The research findings, based on active observation in online groups (WhatsApp, Telegram) and semi-structured interviews with migrants from various ethnic backgrounds, indicate that virtual social networks provide a crucial platform for the reproduction of language, oral literature, rituals, and the strengthening of familial and emotional bonds across generations. These digital spaces, through the sharing of stories, poems, proverbs, and memories, not only prevent the loss of the mother tongue but also reinforce a sense of belonging and collective solidarity. Nevertheless, challenges such as language mixing, generational gaps, and the creation of "cultural bubbles" are also present. This study demonstrates that virtual social networks play a dual role in simultaneously preserving cultural identity and facilitating social integration. Examining these experiences can inspire Iranian policymakers and researchers to better manage migration and cultural challenges. The research highlights the importance of digital platforms in supporting the cultural resilience and social cohesion of migrant communities in today's interconnected world. https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_730253.html Foreign migrants can play a vital role in a country's development; however, they might also present certain social challenges in the host society. Citizens’ attitudes toward migrants are influenced by various factors that can lead to either acceptance or rejection. This study aimed to examine the relationship between different aspects of social trust and Iranians’ attitudes toward foreign migrants. This research is based on secondary data analysis from the seventh wave of the World Values Survey. The results showed that higher levels of interpersonal trust and generalized trust are significantly associated with more positive attitudes toward migrants. Additionally, attitudes toward migrants tend to become less favorable with increasing age. Single individuals generally have more positive attitudes compared to married individuals. Moreover, except for the illiterate group, higher educational levels are associated with more favorable attitudes toward migrants. Regression analysis further revealed that generalized trust as a significant predictor of positive attitudes toward migrants. These findings suggest that building social trust within society can promote more positive perceptions of foreign migrants and help prevent potential social issues related to their integration. https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_730574.html The concept of demographic transition and its role in social, economic, political, and population changes has a well-established history. The term demographic transition describes a process of population change that is rapid, unprecedented, irreversible, and fundamentally impacts social, cultural, and political dimensions. The third demographic transition, sometimes referred to as the "migration transition," is characterized by increased international migration along with continued declines in fertility rates in a region. This shift often results in changes to the ethnic and racial makeup of the area. A low fertility rate combined with increased migration are prerequisites for the third demographic transition. This subject is studied through documentary research in the fields of migration and fertility, with evidence indicating its likely occurrence in the near future, although on a regional rather than a global level. https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_730329.html Recent years have seen a growing focus on international migration policies within both management and academic circles around the world. However, internal migration management policies have received comparatively less attention. This study aimed to review internal migration management policies in various countries and provide recommendations for Iran. The method of this study is a review, and in terms of scope and purpose, it is a review of descriptive empirical findings, and in terms of organization, it is a geographical study. The findings classified these policies into two types: direct and indirect. Direct policies can be further divided into two categories: those that impose restrictions on immigrants and those that provide support for them. On the other hand, indirect policies pertain to both the origin and destination of immigration. Regarding origin policies, the primary focus is on rural development. Key measures for achieving this include providing welfare services to rural residents and establishing industries in areas that receive immigrants. In terms of destination-related policies, decentralization is the main policy. Countries have implemented initiatives such as relocating administrative, commercial, and recreational centers to different cities, creating population attraction centers in various regions, and decentralizing higher education. To effectively manage immigration in Iran, it is recommended to undertake measures such as identifying population absorption centers, establishing industries in immigrant-sending areas in the western part of the country, and decentralizing higher education. https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_730302.html In recent years, with the rise in immigration, particularly among elites, research in this field has also expanded. Inequality and disparities across various domains have influenced migration patterns. This study examines the desire to emigrate among medical students. A survey was conducted among 236 medical students at Shiraz University of Medical Sciences using a standardized questionnaire and a simple random sampling method. The findings from linear regression analysis indicate that feelings of relative deprivation, national identity, connections with emigrants, and ethnicity significantly impact the desire to emigrate. An increase in relative deprivation was associated with a higher inclination to emigrate, whereas a stronger sense of national identity corresponded with a lower desire to leave the country. Additionally, Persian-speaking students exhibited a lower tendency to emigrate compared to their counterparts. Conversely, students who had connections with emigrants demonstrated a higher inclination to emigrate. These findings suggest that addressing feelings of relative deprivation and strengthening national identity may help reduce the emigration tendency among medical students. https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_730310.html Migration, as a social act, has recently become a mental preoccupation for some students. This study aims to explore how the image of migration is formed in the minds of high school students. The present research is qualitative and uses grounded theory as its methodological framework. The sampling was theoretical and purposive, involving 25 students from the second level of high school in Yazd, Iran, who planned to migrate. These participants were selected in 2024–2025. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews and analyzed in three phases: open coding, axial coding, and selective coding. The categories identified include economic ideals, perceptions of a desirable life, dreams of labor migration, positive imagery, extensive family support, backing from migrant relatives, visualization of future pathways, and the construction of a migratory identity. According to the findings, the image of migration in students’ minds is shaped by a combination of individual and social factors. Aspirations for better employment and financial prospects, the motivational role of the family, and the support of social networks—including friends and migrant relatives—help construct migration as a favorable path toward welfare and success. In this context, students, by analyzing the opportunities and challenges of migration, consciously develop a migratory identity and strategically organize their personal and social resources to achieve this envisioned future. https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_730326.html Life expectancy is a key indicator of public health and socio-economic development. Analyzing the contribution of causes of death to changes in life expectancy provides valuable insights for health policymaking. Drawing on data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), this study utilized the multiple-decrement life table method to assess the impact of communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases, and injuries on life expectancy in Iran for the year 2021. Findings reveal significant variations in mortality patterns based on age, sex, and cause of death. Among children, communicable diseases were the predominant causes of death; injuries and violence were significant contributors among young and middle-aged men; whereas, non-communicable diseases—particularly cardiovascular diseases and cancers—were the leading causes of death in older adults. The results further show that non-communicable diseases have the greatest impact on life expectancy. For example, eliminating cardiovascular diseases could extend life expectancy at birth by three years for men (from 72 to 75) and by five years for women (from 77 to 82). If all non-communicable diseases were eradicated, life expectancy could rise to 81 years for men and 92 years for women. Conversely, eliminating communicable diseases mainly improves childhood survival, while the effect of injuries on overall life expectancy remains relatively limited.