Population Association of IranJournal of Population Association of Iran2008-3742101920150522Youth Bulge in Iran:
Research Gaps and Policy ImplicationsYouth Bulge in Iran:
Research Gaps and Policy Implications94325585FARasoulSadeghiMohammad JalalAbassi ShavaziSerajMahmoodianiJournal Article20170529Youth are source of development as well as social problems. The paradoxical nature of challenges and opportunities of a young population clearly highlights the necessity of accurate and multi-faceted scientific understanding of young adult years. Thus, using systematic review of studies conducted on youth in Iran in recent four decades, this paper aims to undertake the situation and problems related to youth bulge in Iran. <br />The results of systematic review indicated that most studies were related to such themes as social problems and pathology of the youth, whereas the least number of studies was conducted on such topics as aspirations and goals of youth especially with regards to their future. Additionally, topics such as education and employment, leisure time, marriage and family formation, social participation, identity, risk behaviors, internet, media and virtual world, religiosity, intergenerational interactions, migration and movement, pre-marriage intimacy and relationships between boys and girls have also been reviewed. Despite the research carried out in recent years, there is a lack of satisfactory and realistic understanding of various facets of the life experiences of youths, and many questions still remain unanswered. Youth bulge, and the rapid pace of social and demographic events during the last few years has introduced various research gaps that discussed in the paper. In conclusion, the youth bulge is not only of important in terms of population weight but also in its economic, social and political aspects.Youth are source of development as well as social problems. The paradoxical nature of challenges and opportunities of a young population clearly highlights the necessity of accurate and multi-faceted scientific understanding of young adult years. Thus, using systematic review of studies conducted on youth in Iran in recent four decades, this paper aims to undertake the situation and problems related to youth bulge in Iran. <br />The results of systematic review indicated that most studies were related to such themes as social problems and pathology of the youth, whereas the least number of studies was conducted on such topics as aspirations and goals of youth especially with regards to their future. Additionally, topics such as education and employment, leisure time, marriage and family formation, social participation, identity, risk behaviors, internet, media and virtual world, religiosity, intergenerational interactions, migration and movement, pre-marriage intimacy and relationships between boys and girls have also been reviewed. Despite the research carried out in recent years, there is a lack of satisfactory and realistic understanding of various facets of the life experiences of youths, and many questions still remain unanswered. Youth bulge, and the rapid pace of social and demographic events during the last few years has introduced various research gaps that discussed in the paper. In conclusion, the youth bulge is not only of important in terms of population weight but also in its economic, social and political aspects.https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_25585_80db35df5f454bc93b249a762b3311d9.pdfPopulation Association of IranJournal of Population Association of Iran2008-3742101920150522Effects of Population Size and Education on InnovationEffects of Population Size and Education on Innovation456125586FAFarrokhMostafaviJournal Article20170529Some researchers posit that population size has a positive relation with innovation and production and use of knowledge, and that population growth will lead to increase in innovation. Research shows that education quality is positively associated with innovation. This paper is concerned with the effects of population size and education on innovation. Data used are related to information on 46 countries which are acquired from various sources, including the World Bank, United Nations, World Intellectual Property Organization, and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Negative Binomial Regression model is used to analyze data. Results indicate that education quality has a positive and signification association with innovation. No significant association, however, between population size and innovation was found. From a policy point of view, investment in education quality can enhance creativity and innovation, and play an effective role in solving problems of economic and social development and population growth.Some researchers posit that population size has a positive relation with innovation and production and use of knowledge, and that population growth will lead to increase in innovation. Research shows that education quality is positively associated with innovation. This paper is concerned with the effects of population size and education on innovation. Data used are related to information on 46 countries which are acquired from various sources, including the World Bank, United Nations, World Intellectual Property Organization, and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Negative Binomial Regression model is used to analyze data. Results indicate that education quality has a positive and signification association with innovation. No significant association, however, between population size and innovation was found. From a policy point of view, investment in education quality can enhance creativity and innovation, and play an effective role in solving problems of economic and social development and population growth.https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_25586_872338a783596365d7fc8d44214be720.pdfPopulation Association of IranJournal of Population Association of Iran2008-3742101920150522First Birth Interval and its determinants in Semnan Province by Parametric Survival ModelFirst Birth Interval and its determinants in Semnan Province by Parametric Survival Model638725587FAMahsaSaadatiArezooBagheriHajjiheRazeghiJournal Article20170529One of the features of below replacement fertility level is increasing first birth interval which has occurred in recent years in Iran. According to importance of using valid statiatical methods for analyzing first birth interval, in this article parametric survival method were introduced and compared by nonparametric survival methods for data in fertility and marriage attitudes survey in Semnan. Data were contained 390 married women aged 15 – 49 years old collected by stratified sampling method in Semnan, 2013. In univariate survival analysis, non-parametric methods of Kaplan-Meier and log-Rank test were applied and to investigate the effect of predictors simultaniously on this interval, parametric survival modeling, Log-Logistic, were also used. The results showed that the mean of first birth interval was 2.72 years and till 4 years after marriage, more than 90 percent of women delivered their first child. Based on parametric survival model results, rural, employed, and less educated women, compared with urban, unemployed, and higher educated women had shorter first birth interval, respectively.One of the features of below replacement fertility level is increasing first birth interval which has occurred in recent years in Iran. According to importance of using valid statiatical methods for analyzing first birth interval, in this article parametric survival method were introduced and compared by nonparametric survival methods for data in fertility and marriage attitudes survey in Semnan. Data were contained 390 married women aged 15 – 49 years old collected by stratified sampling method in Semnan, 2013. In univariate survival analysis, non-parametric methods of Kaplan-Meier and log-Rank test were applied and to investigate the effect of predictors simultaniously on this interval, parametric survival modeling, Log-Logistic, were also used. The results showed that the mean of first birth interval was 2.72 years and till 4 years after marriage, more than 90 percent of women delivered their first child. Based on parametric survival model results, rural, employed, and less educated women, compared with urban, unemployed, and higher educated women had shorter first birth interval, respectively.https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_25587_2b3aa41ec493d9908c56dcd665d08d22.pdfPopulation Association of IranJournal of Population Association of Iran2008-3742101920150522Population Simulation of Small Areas in the Base YearPopulation Simulation of Small Areas in the Base Year8910725588FAMohammad TaghiMotiHamidrezaNavabpoorJournal Article20170529Population predictions in Iran are normally conducted in a large scale, i.e., at national and provincial levels, due to the lack of ancillary information. However, Population projection with different features in small areas (city, district, municipality, etc.) increases the ability to meet the statistical needs of researchers, policy makers, and planners. With respect to the fact that all the small area data are not generally available, moreover knowing the households and individuals' frequency distribution (e.g. age by gender, type of household and etc.) is vital, the synthetic simulation of small areas populations with the targeted features seems to be of great importance. Since access to many population and population features in small areas are not possible through censuses, many researchers have been seeking for methodologies to simulate the small areas populations. In recent years, a variety of methods have been invented for population simulation including the sample-based method. This paper has used this method to simulate populations of selected small areas of different features with a synthetic method for the base year 2006 by suggesting remedy for its drawbacks. Moreover, with respect to some measures, performance of the method is compared to the censual data.Population predictions in Iran are normally conducted in a large scale, i.e., at national and provincial levels, due to the lack of ancillary information. However, Population projection with different features in small areas (city, district, municipality, etc.) increases the ability to meet the statistical needs of researchers, policy makers, and planners. With respect to the fact that all the small area data are not generally available, moreover knowing the households and individuals' frequency distribution (e.g. age by gender, type of household and etc.) is vital, the synthetic simulation of small areas populations with the targeted features seems to be of great importance. Since access to many population and population features in small areas are not possible through censuses, many researchers have been seeking for methodologies to simulate the small areas populations. In recent years, a variety of methods have been invented for population simulation including the sample-based method. This paper has used this method to simulate populations of selected small areas of different features with a synthetic method for the base year 2006 by suggesting remedy for its drawbacks. Moreover, with respect to some measures, performance of the method is compared to the censual data.https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_25588_f83d13844fb3dadd32223756dd132261.pdfPopulation Association of IranJournal of Population Association of Iran2008-3742101920150522Comparative study of sense of social security between headed household women and women having supervisor (A study in the city of Ramhormoz)Comparative study of sense of social security between headed household women and women having supervisor (A study in the city of Ramhormoz)10914225589FAJafarKordzanganeJournal Article20170529The aim of the present study was comparative study of sense of social security in the eight dimentions (security of cultural, legal, financial, bodily, truth, moral, ethical and emotional) between headed household women, and women having supervisor in the city of Ramhormoz.The statistical society of this reaserch include all covered women of welfare Ramhormoz city as the first part of the sampel size that 222 headed household women chosen with a simple random sampling method, and among other women living in the city of Ramhormoz that have supervisor 202 women chosen with a haphazard sampling (n = 424). Findings show relationship between the level of education, attitude to coverage, income, social support, and cause of Supervision and sense of social security. The T test results show that the average sense of social security between the women headed household and the women who have supervisor is significantly different in the financial, bodily, emotional and cultural dimensions. Level of education, income and social support explain the variance of women<sup>,</sup>s sense of social security. By accepting the role of these three variables in the women empowerment, we conclude that empovering the woman cause an increased confidence, achieving an independent identity, improve their social status and finaly feel more secure for them, which will benefit the whole communityThe aim of the present study was comparative study of sense of social security in the eight dimentions (security of cultural, legal, financial, bodily, truth, moral, ethical and emotional) between headed household women, and women having supervisor in the city of Ramhormoz.The statistical society of this reaserch include all covered women of welfare Ramhormoz city as the first part of the sampel size that 222 headed household women chosen with a simple random sampling method, and among other women living in the city of Ramhormoz that have supervisor 202 women chosen with a haphazard sampling (n = 424). Findings show relationship between the level of education, attitude to coverage, income, social support, and cause of Supervision and sense of social security. The T test results show that the average sense of social security between the women headed household and the women who have supervisor is significantly different in the financial, bodily, emotional and cultural dimensions. Level of education, income and social support explain the variance of women<sup>,</sup>s sense of social security. By accepting the role of these three variables in the women empowerment, we conclude that empovering the woman cause an increased confidence, achieving an independent identity, improve their social status and finaly feel more secure for them, which will benefit the whole communityhttps://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_25589_3f4a917da8640f243cd5e5c2d66a99c6.pdfPopulation Association of IranJournal of Population Association of Iran2008-3742101920150522Tempo effect of childbearing and adjusted level of fertility in IranTempo effect of childbearing and adjusted level of fertility in Iran14316325590FAMohammadrezaBoromandzadehAliyarAhmadiJournal Article20170529Although the demographic literature offers many measures of fertility, the total fertility rate (TFR) is now used more often than any other indicator. The TFR is defined as the average number of births a woman would have if she were to live through her reproductive years (ages 15– 49) bear children at each age at the rates observed in a particular year or period. It is a hypothetical measure because no real group of women has experienced or will necessarily experience these particular rates. But this measure is disturbed by some timing effects called Tempo effects - distortions due to changes in the timing of births. The conventional TFR can be considered to consist of a quantum and a tempo component. Quantum component of the TFR would have been observed in the absence of changes in the timing of childbearing during the period in which the TFR is measured. The tempo component equals the distortion that occurs due to timing changes. In this paper history and the methodology of the tempo and quantum effects of fertility is discussed and the methods to adjust the total fertility rate (TFR) are elaborated focusing on method presented by Bongaarts and Feeney (BF method 1998). Meanwhile the analyses of fertility rates in this duration (1996-2011) in Iran illustrate the necessity of employing tempo adjusted methods in measuring fertility.Although the demographic literature offers many measures of fertility, the total fertility rate (TFR) is now used more often than any other indicator. The TFR is defined as the average number of births a woman would have if she were to live through her reproductive years (ages 15– 49) bear children at each age at the rates observed in a particular year or period. It is a hypothetical measure because no real group of women has experienced or will necessarily experience these particular rates. But this measure is disturbed by some timing effects called Tempo effects - distortions due to changes in the timing of births. The conventional TFR can be considered to consist of a quantum and a tempo component. Quantum component of the TFR would have been observed in the absence of changes in the timing of childbearing during the period in which the TFR is measured. The tempo component equals the distortion that occurs due to timing changes. In this paper history and the methodology of the tempo and quantum effects of fertility is discussed and the methods to adjust the total fertility rate (TFR) are elaborated focusing on method presented by Bongaarts and Feeney (BF method 1998). Meanwhile the analyses of fertility rates in this duration (1996-2011) in Iran illustrate the necessity of employing tempo adjusted methods in measuring fertility.https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_25590_f220707c3afe39d1779e0a34af72bb7f.pdfPopulation Association of IranJournal of Population Association of Iran2008-3742101920150522Family-Work Conflict and its Relation to Fertility Behavior
A study among employed women in education section in the city of YazdFamily-Work Conflict and its Relation to Fertility Behavior
A study among employed women in education section in the city of Yazd16519325591FAHajiiheRazeghiAssistant Professor of Demography,National Institute for Population Research, Tehran, IranMaliheAlimandegariAssistant Professor of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Yazd University, Yazd, IranAliMohammadipourMA in Demography, Department of Social Sciences, Yazd University, Yazd, IranJournal Article20170529When matching employed women work outside the home and Their roles within the home may face several problems. This study attempts to investigate the conflict between work and family and its relationship with fertility of employed women. This is based on a survey in 2014 conducted among married women working in education section in the city of Yazd. The results show that the average score of respondents’ work-family conflict is 46.07 that is at an intermediate level. The remarkable Point is relatively high-conflict family environment than the workplace. Bivariate analysis of the data showed that the number of children is negatively correlated with work-family conflict. The highest average score of work-family conflict belonging to women with one child and is equal to 54.12. Among most of women in this group, duration of marriage is less than 9 year and many of them have young children. In multivariate analysis, Duration of marriage, positions and participation of men in housework are variables that reduced impact of conflict on fertility. Despite women's experience of conflict in the family, do their family roles. With regard to the role of women in strengthening relationships between family members, increasing social support of family roles, flexible working hours and part-time work for women can be effective in reducing work-family conflict.When matching employed women work outside the home and Their roles within the home may face several problems. This study attempts to investigate the conflict between work and family and its relationship with fertility of employed women. This is based on a survey in 2014 conducted among married women working in education section in the city of Yazd. The results show that the average score of respondents’ work-family conflict is 46.07 that is at an intermediate level. The remarkable Point is relatively high-conflict family environment than the workplace. Bivariate analysis of the data showed that the number of children is negatively correlated with work-family conflict. The highest average score of work-family conflict belonging to women with one child and is equal to 54.12. Among most of women in this group, duration of marriage is less than 9 year and many of them have young children. In multivariate analysis, Duration of marriage, positions and participation of men in housework are variables that reduced impact of conflict on fertility. Despite women's experience of conflict in the family, do their family roles. With regard to the role of women in strengthening relationships between family members, increasing social support of family roles, flexible working hours and part-time work for women can be effective in reducing work-family conflict.https://www.jpaiassoc.ir/article_25591_ab4981fb59db07f87db4b1a7a2e9efcf.pdf